Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLigorna to win ✗68% · @1.55
Double chanceLigorna or draw ✗87% · fair 1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.17
Ligorna vs Derthona preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone A sees Ligorna take on Derthona on Wednesday 16 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Ligorna are 5th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Derthona sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ligorna's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Biellese 1–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game.
Derthona's last 5: DWDDD Most recently they drew with Imperia 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ligorna arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Ligorna and 0.7 for Derthona. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 43%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ligorna 68%, draw 19%, Derthona 13%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ligorna to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ligorna 1–0 Derthona. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ligorna68%fair 1.47 · @1.55
Draw19%fair 5.32 · @3.60
Derthona13%fair 7.51 · @5.25
2.63Expected goals
1.94Ligorna xG
0.69Derthona xG
43%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ligorna 1.9 – 0.7 Derthona expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ligorna to win✗
68%
1.47
1.55 ▲
Double chance
Ligorna or draw✗
87%
1.15
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Ligorna ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ligorna / FT Ligorna✗
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.17
–
Form
Ligorna – last 6
LDWWWD
13 Sep
@ Biellese
1–3
L
6 Sep
vs Sanremese
2–2
D
17 May
vs Città di Varese
5–3
W
10 May
vs Chisola
1–0
W
3 May
vs NovaRomentin
9–1
W
26 Apr
@ Asti
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Derthona – last 6
DWDDDL
13 Sep
vs Imperia
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Celle Varazze
1–0
W
10 May
vs Gozzano
1–1
D
3 May
@ Saluzzo
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Imperia
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Città di Varese
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ligorna and Derthona.
Our pick is Ligorna to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Ligorna vs Derthona?
On our numbers Ligorna have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Derthona 13%.
How many goals will there be in Ligorna vs Derthona?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ligorna vs Derthona?
Our predicted score is Ligorna 1–0 Derthona, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ligorna vs Derthona?
Ligorna vs Derthona (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
