Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.10 – our chance 58% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +79%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗58% · @3.10
Double chanceValenzana or draw ✗80% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.69
Valenzana vs Alessandria preview and prediction
The match
Valenzana host Alessandria in the Serie D Girone A on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT). Valenzana are 17th with 6 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Alessandria sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Valenzana's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Chisola 2–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Valenzana and 1.2 for Alessandria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 49%.
Value angle: Draw at 3.10 – 58% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Valenzana or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Valenzana 1–1 Alessandria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valenzana23%fair 4.43 · @2.40
Draw58%fair 1.73 · @3.10
Alessandria20%fair 5.06 · @2.70
2.43Expected goals
1.24Valenzana xG
1.18Alessandria xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Valenzana 1.2 – 1.2 Alessandria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
58%
1.73
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Valenzana or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valenzana / FT Valenzana✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.69
–
Form
Valenzana – last 6
LLWWWL
3 May
vs Chisola
2–3
L
26 Apr
@ Cairese
0–4
L
19 Apr
vs Lavagnese
2–0
W
2 Apr
@ Città di Varese
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ligorna
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Vado
1–6
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alessandria
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valenzana and Alessandria.
What is the prediction for Valenzana vs Alessandria?
Our pick is Valenzana or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Valenzana vs Alessandria?
On our numbers Valenzana have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Alessandria 20%.
How many goals will there be in Valenzana vs Alessandria?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valenzana vs Alessandria?
Our predicted score is Valenzana 1–1 Alessandria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Valenzana vs Alessandria?
Valenzana vs Alessandria (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
