Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 2.25 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✗47% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.17
Danubio vs Racing Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Danubio take on Racing Montevideo on Sunday 23 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Danubio are 14th with 10 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Racing Montevideo sit 6th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Danubio's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Boston River 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Racing Montevideo's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Club Nacional 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Racing Montevideo 4–0 Danubio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for Danubio and 1.3 for Racing Montevideo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Danubio 29%, draw 24%, Racing Montevideo 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Racing Montevideo to win at 2.25 – 47% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.98, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Danubio 1–1 Racing Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Danubio29%fair 3.46 · @3.40
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.88
Racing Montevideo47%fair 2.12 · @2.25
2.15Expected goals
0.89Danubio xG
1.26Racing Montevideo xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Danubio 0.9 – 1.3 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Danubio vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Danubio have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Racing Montevideo 47%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Racing Montevideo?
Danubio vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
