Value bet: Alianza Universidad to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✗42% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.04
Santos vs Alianza Universidad preview and prediction
The match
Santos host Alianza Universidad in the Segunda División on Monday 17 August, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Nasca. Santos are 6th with 21 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Alianza Universidad sit 5th on 21 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Santos's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Sport Huancayo 2 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Alianza Universidad's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Sport Huancayo 2 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 May 2026, finished Alianza Universidad 1–2 Santos.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Santos and 1.1 for Alianza Universidad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santos 42%, draw 24%, Alianza Universidad 34%.
Value angle: Alianza Universidad to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Santos 1–1 Alianza Universidad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos42%fair 2.40 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Alianza Universidad34%fair 2.92 · @3.25
2.28Expected goals
1.21Santos xG
1.06Alianza Universidad xG
44%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Santos 1.2 – 1.1 Alianza Universidad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Santos vs Alianza Universidad?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Santos vs Alianza Universidad?
On our numbers Santos have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Universidad 34%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Alianza Universidad?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Alianza Universidad?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Alianza Universidad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Alianza Universidad?
Santos vs Alianza Universidad (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Nasca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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