Segunda División · PeruMolinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Union Comercio to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Molinos El Pirata 1.0 – 1.2 Union Comercio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Union Comercio shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 33% for Molinos El Pirata.
Molinos El Pirata have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.0 per game. Union Comercio have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.0 for Molinos El Pirata, 1.2 for Union Comercio). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 45%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.65 is close to our fair price of 1.69. For a bigger price, Union Comercio to win at 2.45 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Union Comercio to win ✓ | 45% | 2.22 | 2.45 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Union Comercio / FT Union Comercio ✓ | 24% | 4.14 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.57 | – |
Form
Molinos El Pirata – last 6
| 9 Aug | @ Cesar Vallejo | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Jul | @ Deportiva Agropecuaria | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Jul | vs U. San Martin | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Jul | @ Alianza Atletico | 2–3 | L |
| 22 Jun | @ Atletico Grau | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Jun | vs Universitario | 2–0 | W |
Union Comercio – last 6
| 7 Aug | vs Academia Cantolao | 4–0 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Cesar Vallejo | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Jun | @ Sporting Cristal | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Jun | vs Comerciantes | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Jun | @ Estudiantil CNI | 3–1 | W |
| 31 May | vs Deportiva Agropecuaria | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Molinos El Pirata and Union Comercio.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Comercio | 16 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | +10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Molinos El Pirata | 16 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  U. San Martin | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 6 |  Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | +2 | 21 |
| 7 |  Cesar Vallejo | 15 | +1 | 19 |
| 8 |  Academia Cantolao | 16 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 |  San Marcos | 14 | -43 | 0 |
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Alianza Universidad3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
On our numbers Molinos El Pirata have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Comercio 45%.
How many goals will there be in Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
When is Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio?
Molinos El Pirata vs Union Comercio (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.