Value bet: Derby County U21 to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerby County U21 to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗70% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.79
Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21 preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League 2 Division One sees Birmingham City U21 take on Derby County U21 on Monday 19 October, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Damson Park. Birmingham City U21 are 30th with 3 points from 6 games (in the bottom three), while Derby County U21 sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Birmingham City U21's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Truro City 0–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Derby County U21's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Scunthorpe 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.7 goals: 1.9 for Birmingham City U21 and 2.8 for Derby County U21. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 85% and both teams to score at 70%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Birmingham City U21 26%, draw 15%, Derby County U21 59%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.35.
Value angle: Derby County U21 to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 70% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Birmingham City U21 1–2 Derby County U21. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Birmingham City U2126%fair 3.78 · @2.90
Draw15%fair 6.65 · @3.80
Derby County U2159%fair 1.71 · @1.91
4.71Expected goals
1.90Birmingham City U21 xG
2.81Derby County U21 xG
70%Both score
85%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–27%
2–26%
1–36%
2–36%
1–15%
2–15%
From our goals model: Birmingham City U21 1.9 – 2.8 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby County U21 to win✓
59%
1.71
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
70%
1.44
1.35
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Derby County U21 ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby County U21 / FT Derby County U21✓
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.79
–
Form
Birmingham City U21 – last 6
LLDWLD
13 Oct
@ Truro City
0–3
L
9 Oct
vs Huddersfield Town U21
2–4
L
18 Sep
vs Arsenal U21
0–0
D
15 Sep
@ Gillingham FC U21
4–0
W
11 Sep
@ Norwich City U21
2–4
L
8 Sep
@ Sutton Utd
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Derby County U21 – last 6
DLLLWD
13 Oct
@ Scunthorpe
2–2
D
10 Oct
@ Brentford U21
2–4
L
18 Sep
@ Burnley U21
1–4
L
11 Sep
vs Tottenham Hotspur U21
1–3
L
8 Sep
@ Gateshead
3–1
W
31 Aug
vs West Bromwich Albion U21
4–4
D
2.2Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham City U21 and Derby County U21.
What is the prediction for Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
On our numbers Birmingham City U21 have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Derby County U21 59%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
We expect about 4.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 85% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our predicted score is Birmingham City U21 1–2 Derby County U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.7 goals in total.
When is Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21 (Premier League 2 Division One) kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Damson Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
