Value bet: Derby County U21 to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerby County U21 to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓71% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗6% · fair 16.66
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 preview and prediction
The match
Burnley U21 host Derby County U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One on Friday 18 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Lancashire County Ground. Burnley U21 are 27th with 4 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while Derby County U21 sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Burnley U21's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Nottingham Forest U21 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Derby County U21's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Tottenham Hotspur U21 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 February 2026, finished Burnley U21 1–1 Derby County U21.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.7 goals: 2.3 for Burnley U21 and 2.3 for Derby County U21. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 84% and both teams to score at 71%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Derby County U21 to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 71% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Burnley U21 2–2 Derby County U21. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burnley U2139%fair 2.57 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.60
Derby County U2140%fair 2.51 · @2.70
4.67Expected goals
2.32Burnley U21 xG
2.35Derby County U21 xG
71%Both score
84%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–27%
1–26%
2–16%
2–35%
3–25%
1–15%
From our goals model: Burnley U21 2.3 – 2.3 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
On our numbers Burnley U21 have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Derby County U21 40%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
We expect about 4.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 84% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our predicted score is Burnley U21 2–2 Derby County U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.7 goals in total.
When is Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 (Premier League 2 Division One) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Lancashire County Ground.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
