Value bet: Tre Fiori to win @ 2.70 – our chance 43% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTre Fiori to win ✗43% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.01
Tre Fiori vs Virtus preview and prediction
The match
The Campionato sees Tre Fiori take on Virtus on Friday 18 September, kicking off at 20:15 (WAT). Tre Fiori are 4th with 17 points from 8 games (in the top four), while Virtus sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Tre Fiori's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Domagnano 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Virtus's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Libertas 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 March 2026, finished Tre Fiori 1–0 Virtus. Across their last 2 meetings Tre Fiori have won 1, Virtus 0, with 1 draw and 0.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Tre Fiori and 1.2 for Virtus. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tre Fiori 43%, draw 22%, Virtus 35%.
Value angle: Tre Fiori to win at 2.70 – 43% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 53% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Tre Fiori 1–1 Virtus. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tre Fiori43%fair 2.32 · @2.70
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.20
Virtus35%fair 2.85 · @2.35
2.65Expected goals
1.41Tre Fiori xG
1.24Virtus xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tre Fiori 1.4 – 1.2 Virtus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
On our numbers Tre Fiori have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Virtus 35%.
How many goals will there be in Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
Our predicted score is Tre Fiori 1–1 Virtus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
Tre Fiori vs Virtus (Campionato) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
