Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 60% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGenoa to win ✓65% · @1.39
Double chanceGenoa or draw ✓85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Genoa vs Ascoli preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia sees Genoa take on Ascoli on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Form guide
Genoa's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Ascoli's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Potenza 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.3 for Genoa and 1.1 for Ascoli. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genoa 65%, draw 19%, Ascoli 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 60% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Genoa 2–1 Ascoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genoa65%fair 1.53 · @1.39
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @4.30
Ascoli15%fair 6.56 · @8.70
3.39Expected goals
2.33Genoa xG
1.06Ascoli xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Genoa 2.3 – 1.1 Ascoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Genoa to win✓
65%
1.53
1.39
Double chance
Genoa or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.38
Half-time result
Genoa ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Genoa / FT Genoa✓
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.31
–
Form
Genoa – last 6
LLWDWL
8 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
L
4 Aug
@ Bournemouth
1–10
L
1 Aug
@ Leicester
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Vicenza Virtus
2–2
D
19 Jul
vs Trento
2–1
W
24 May
@ Lecce
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ascoli – last 6
WLLWDL
8 Aug
vs Potenza
3–1
W
2 Aug
vs Lazio
1–2
L
26 Jul
@ Frosinone
0–1
L
7 Jun
vs Union Brescia
3–0
W
3 Jun
@ Union Brescia
1–1
D
27 May
@ Catania
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and Ascoli.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Genoa vs Ascoli?
On our numbers Genoa have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ascoli 15%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Ascoli?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Ascoli?
Our predicted score is Genoa 2–1 Ascoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs Ascoli?
Genoa vs Ascoli (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Frosinone4
Juve Stabia1
Hellas Verona2
Virtus Entella2
Lazio0
Mantova2