Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 56% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLazio to win ✗66% · @1.31
Double chanceLazio or draw ✗87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.33
Lazio vs Mantova preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia sees Lazio take on Mantova on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 20:15 (WAT) at Stadio Olimpico.
Form guide
Lazio's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Frosinone 2–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game.
Mantova's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Athletic Carpi 0–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Lazio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Lazio and 0.8 for Mantova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lazio 66%, draw 21%, Mantova 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 56% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lazio 2–0 Mantova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lazio66%fair 1.51 · @1.31
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @4.80
Mantova13%fair 7.78 · @10.00
2.89Expected goals
2.08Lazio xG
0.81Mantova xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lazio 2.1 – 0.8 Mantova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lazio to win✗
66%
1.51
1.31
Double chance
Lazio or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Lazio ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✗
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.33
–
Form
Lazio – last 6
WWWWWL
9 Aug
@ Frosinone
2–1
W
5 Aug
vs Ostia Mare
4–0
W
2 Aug
@ Ascoli
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Avellino
6–3
W
26 Jul
vs Flaminia
6–0
W
17 May
@ AS Roma
0–2
L
3.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Mantova – last 6
LWWLWW
9 Aug
vs Athletic Carpi
0–1
L
6 Aug
@ Legnago Salus
3–1
W
30 Jul
vs Alcione
6–2
W
8 May
@ Frosinone
0–5
L
1 May
vs Monza
3–2
W
6 Apr
vs Virtus Entella
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and Mantova.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lazio vs Mantova?
On our numbers Lazio have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mantova 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Mantova?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Mantova?
Our predicted score is Lazio 2–0 Mantova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs Mantova?
Lazio vs Mantova (Coppa Italia) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Frosinone4
Juve Stabia1
Genoa4
Ascoli1
Hellas Verona2
Virtus Entella2