Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Guabirá to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuabirá to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceGuabirá or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Guabirá vs Aurora preview and prediction
The match
Aurora travel to Estadio Gilberto Parada in the Primera División on Wednesday 16 September (20:00 WAT) to face Guabirá. Guabirá are 8th with 33 points from 25 games (in the top half), while Aurora sit 6th on 36 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guabirá's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Always Ready 0–6 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Aurora's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aurora arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.1 for Guabirá and 1.0 for Aurora. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 64%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guabirá 62%, draw 22%, Aurora 16%.
Safer route: Guabirá or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Guabirá to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Guabirá or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Guabirá 2–1 Aurora. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guabirá62%fair 1.62 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.40
Aurora16%fair 6.21 · @3.40
3.18Expected goals
2.15Guabirá xG
1.03Aurora xG
64%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Guabirá 2.1 – 1.0 Aurora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guabirá to win✓
62%
1.62
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Guabirá or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Guabirá ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guabirá / FT Guabirá✓
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Form
Guabirá – last 6
LLDLLD
13 Sep
@ Always Ready
0–6
L
9 Sep
@ Oriente Petrolero
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Real Potosí
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ San Antonio Bulo Bulo
1–5
L
27 Aug
@ Independiente Petrolero
1–3
L
23 Aug
vs Blooming
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Aurora – last 6
WWWDDD
11 Sep
@ San Antonio Bulo Bulo
2–0
W
8 Sep
vs Real Potosí
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ
3–0
W
2 Sep
@ Universitario de Vinto
1–1
D
27 Aug
@ Always Ready
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Real Potosí
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guabirá and Aurora.
Our pick is Guabirá or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Guabirá vs Aurora?
On our numbers Guabirá have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aurora 16%.
How many goals will there be in Guabirá vs Aurora?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guabirá vs Aurora?
Our predicted score is Guabirá 2–1 Aurora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Guabirá vs Aurora?
Guabirá vs Aurora (Primera División) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gilberto Parada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
