Derde Divisie Saturday · NetherlandsGroene Ster vs Gemert prediction & analysis
Groene Ster to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Groene Ster 2.2 – 1.3 Gemert expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Groene Ster are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 24% for Gemert.
Groene Ster have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.3 per game. Gemert have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.2 for Groene Ster, 1.3 for Gemert). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%).
Our pick is Groene Ster to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Groene Ster to win ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.85 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time result | Groene Ster ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Groene Ster / FT Groene Ster ✗ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.48 | – |
Form
Groene Ster – last 6
| 22 Sep | vs AFC Amsterdam | 1–6 | L |
| 19 Sep | @ EVV | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Zwaluwen | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ TOGB | 3–3 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs Heerjansdam | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Vvsb | 3–3 | D |
Gemert – last 6
| 23 Sep | @ Ijsselmeervogels | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs UDI '19 | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Poortugaal | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs UNA | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Sep | @ FC 's-Gravenzande | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Dongen | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Groene Ster and Gemert.
Derde Divisie Saturday table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ACV | 12 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  VV Scherpenzeel | 12 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Harkemase Boys | 12 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  TEC | 12 | +15 | 24 |
| 5 |  Excelsior '31 | 12 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 |  SC Genemuiden | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sportlust '46 | 12 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 |  Purmersteijn | 12 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sparta Nijkerk | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 |  ADO '20 | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Hercules | 12 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 |  Hoogeveen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Eemdijk | 12 | -12 | 13 |
| 14 |  DVS 33 Ermelo | 12 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Staphorst | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 |  Hollandia | 12 | -13 | 8 |
| 17 |  Dovo | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  SVZW | 12 | -21 | 1 |
| 1 |  FC Lisse | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 |  Noordwijk | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 3 |  Excelsior Maassluis | 12 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Rijnvogels | 12 | +16 | 24 |
| 5 |  Zwaluwen | 12 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 |  Poortugaal | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  UDI '19 | 12 | +9 | 20 |
| 8 |  GOES | 12 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Gemert | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Dongen | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Blauw Geel | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  TOGB | 12 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 |  Roosendaal | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  UNA | 12 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Vvsb | 12 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Groene Ster | 12 | -17 | 9 |
| 17 |  Achilles Veen | 12 | -20 | 6 |
| 18 |  EVV | 12 | -14 | 3 |
More Derde Divisie Saturday predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Groene Ster vs Gemert?
Our pick is Groene Ster to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Groene Ster vs Gemert?
On our numbers Groene Ster have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Gemert 24%.
How many goals will there be in Groene Ster vs Gemert?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Groene Ster vs Gemert?
Groene Ster vs Gemert (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.