Derde Divisie Saturday · NetherlandsHollandia vs Hercules prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
Value bet: Hercules to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Hollandia 2.1 – 2.3 Hercules expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Hercules shade it despite being away from home – 43% to win, against 36% for Hollandia.
Hollandia have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 3.2 per game. Hercules have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 1.3 scored and 3.3 conceded.
We expect around 4.3 goals (2.1 for Hollandia, 2.3 for Hercules). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–2 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–1 (6%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Hercules to win at 2.50 is our value angle (43% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Hercules to win ✓ | 43% | 2.32 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 93% | 1.08 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.60 | – |
| Half-time result | Hercules ahead at half-time ✓ | 36% | 2.75 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Hercules / FT Hercules ✓ | 27% | 3.67 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 7% | 14.29 | – |
Form
Hollandia – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ DVS 33 Ermelo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Sportlust '46 | 2–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs TEC | 4–5 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Halsteren | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Sparta Nijkerk | 5–5 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs ACV | 0–2 | L |
Hercules – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs TEC | 2–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Sparta Nijkerk | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs ACV | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs EVV | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Harkemase Boys | 3–5 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs SC Genemuiden | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hollandia and Hercules.
Derde Divisie Saturday table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ACV | 12 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  VV Scherpenzeel | 12 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Harkemase Boys | 12 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  TEC | 12 | +15 | 24 |
| 5 |  Excelsior '31 | 12 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 |  SC Genemuiden | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sportlust '46 | 12 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 |  Purmersteijn | 12 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sparta Nijkerk | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 |  ADO '20 | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Hercules | 12 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 |  Hoogeveen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Eemdijk | 12 | -12 | 13 |
| 14 |  DVS 33 Ermelo | 12 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Staphorst | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 |  Hollandia | 12 | -13 | 8 |
| 17 |  Dovo | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  SVZW | 12 | -21 | 1 |
| 1 |  FC Lisse | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 |  Noordwijk | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 3 |  Excelsior Maassluis | 12 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Rijnvogels | 12 | +16 | 24 |
| 5 |  Zwaluwen | 12 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 |  Poortugaal | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  UDI '19 | 12 | +9 | 20 |
| 8 |  GOES | 12 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Gemert | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Dongen | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Blauw Geel | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  TOGB | 12 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 |  Roosendaal | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  UNA | 12 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Vvsb | 12 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Groene Ster | 12 | -17 | 9 |
| 17 |  Achilles Veen | 12 | -20 | 6 |
| 18 |  EVV | 12 | -14 | 3 |
More Derde Divisie Saturday predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Hollandia vs Hercules?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Hollandia vs Hercules?
On our numbers Hollandia have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Hercules 43%.
How many goals will there be in Hollandia vs Hercules?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Hollandia vs Hercules?
Hollandia vs Hercules (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.