Tercera División RFEF Group 18 · Spain
Toledo
Marchamalo
Toledo vs Marchamalo prediction & analysis
Toledo to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.18 – our chance 53% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Toledo 2.4 – 0.7 Marchamalo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Toledo are clear favourites at home with a 74% chance of winning, against 7% for Marchamalo.
Toledo have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Marchamalo have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded. Toledo come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.4 for Toledo, 0.7 for Marchamalo). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 3–0 (10%).
Our pick is Toledo to win at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.18 is our value angle (53% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Toledo to win ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | 1.22 |
| Double chance | Toledo or draw ✓ | 93% | 1.08 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 2.18 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.68 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Toledo ahead at half-time ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Toledo / FT Toledo ✓ | 51% | 1.94 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✓ | 13% | 7.85 | – |
Form
Toledo – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ San Clemente | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Almansa | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Manchego | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Huracán Balazote | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Villacañas | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs La Solana | 4–0 | W |
Marchamalo – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Quintanar del Rey | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Oct | @ San Clemente | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Socuéllamos | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Almansa | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Tarancón | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Manchego | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toledo and Marchamalo.
More Tercera División RFEF Group 18 predictions
Tarancón0
La Solana2
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
75%@1.22
✓
FT
Villarrobledo0
San Clemente2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
69%@1.35
✓
FT
Illescas1
Almansa0
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
73%@1.25
✗
FT
Quintanar del Rey1
Villarrubia2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
69%@1.37
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toledo vs Marchamalo?
Our pick is Toledo to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Toledo vs Marchamalo?
On our numbers Toledo have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Marchamalo 7%.
How many goals will there be in Toledo vs Marchamalo?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Toledo vs Marchamalo?
Toledo vs Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.