Value bet: Villarrobledo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVillarrubia to win ✗44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.27
Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo preview and prediction
The match
Villarrubia host Villarrobledo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18 on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Villarrubia are 11th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Villarrobledo sit 5th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Villarrubia's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Toledo 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Villarrobledo's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Quintanar del Rey 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villarrobledo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 February 2026, finished Villarrobledo 1–0 Villarrubia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.9 for Villarrubia and 0.6 for Villarrobledo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely.
Value angle: Villarrobledo to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Villarrubia 0–0 Villarrobledo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Villarrubia44%fair 2.28 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.80
Villarrobledo32%fair 3.11 · @3.50
1.50Expected goals
0.85Villarrubia xG
0.65Villarrobledo xG
46%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–019%
0–114%
1–112%
2–08%
2–15%
From our goals model: Villarrubia 0.9 – 0.6 Villarrobledo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
On our numbers Villarrubia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Villarrobledo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
Our predicted score is Villarrubia 0–0 Villarrobledo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
