Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 58% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +38%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultToledo to win ✗70% · @1.40
Double chanceToledo or draw ✓92% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @2.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78
Toledo vs Villarrubia preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 18 sees Toledo take on Villarrubia on Saturday 12 September, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT). Toledo are 2nd with 22 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Villarrubia sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Toledo's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Quintanar del Rey 4–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villarrubia's last 5: DDWLD Most recently they drew with San Clemente 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.9 for Toledo and 1.1 for Villarrubia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.40 – 58% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toledo to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Toledo 2–1 Villarrubia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toledo70%fair 1.42 · @1.40
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.60
Villarrubia8%fair 12.54 · @8.00
4.00Expected goals
2.89Toledo xG
1.11Villarrubia xG
58%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–18%
2–08%
3–07%
4–16%
1–16%
From our goals model: Toledo 2.9 – 1.1 Villarrubia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toledo to win✗
70%
1.42
1.40
Double chance
Toledo or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
2.40 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Toledo ahead at half-time✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toledo / FT Toledo✗
51%
1.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.78
–
Form
Toledo – last 6
WLDWWD
6 Sep
@ Quintanar del Rey
4–2
W
24 May
vs Albacete II
0–1
L
17 May
@ Albacete II
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ San Clemente
4–0
W
2 Apr
vs Manchego
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Villarrobledo
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Villarrubia – last 6
DDWLDW
5 Sep
vs San Clemente
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Azuqueca
2–2
D
2 Apr
vs Tarancón
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ San Clemente
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ Illescas
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Manchego
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toledo and Villarrubia.
Our pick is Toledo to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Toledo vs Villarrubia?
On our numbers Toledo have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Villarrubia 8%.
How many goals will there be in Toledo vs Villarrubia?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toledo vs Villarrubia?
Our predicted score is Toledo 2–1 Villarrubia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Toledo vs Villarrubia?
Toledo vs Villarrubia (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
