Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Toledo to win @ 3.30 – our chance 40% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultToledo to win ✓40% · @3.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.88
Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo preview and prediction
The match
Toledo travel to face Quintanar del Rey in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18 on Sunday 6 September (18:00 WAT). Quintanar del Rey are 17th with 6 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Toledo sit 2nd on 22 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Quintanar del Rey's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Elche II 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Toledo's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Albacete II 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Quintanar del Rey arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Quintanar del Rey and 1.1 for Toledo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Quintanar del Rey 36%, draw 25%, Toledo 40%.
Value angle: Toledo to win at 3.30 – 40% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Quintanar del Rey 1–1 Toledo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Quintanar del Rey36%fair 2.80 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Toledo40%fair 2.52 · @3.30
2.19Expected goals
1.06Quintanar del Rey xG
1.14Toledo xG
46%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Quintanar del Rey 1.1 – 1.1 Toledo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toledo to win✓
40%
2.52
3.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toledo / FT Toledo✗
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.88
–
Form
Quintanar del Rey – last 6
WDWWWL
3 May
@ Elche II
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs RSD Alcalá
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Intercity
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Fuenlabrada
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Navalcarnero
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Socuéllamos
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toledo – last 6
LDWWDD
24 May
vs Albacete II
0–1
L
17 May
@ Albacete II
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ San Clemente
4–0
W
2 Apr
vs Manchego
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Villarrobledo
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Albacete II
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Quintanar del Rey and Toledo.
What is the prediction for Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
On our numbers Quintanar del Rey have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Toledo 40%.
How many goals will there be in Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Our predicted score is Quintanar del Rey 1–1 Toledo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
