Value bet: Algar to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBalsicas Atlético to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.19
Algar vs Balsicas Atlético preview and prediction
The match
Algar host Balsicas Atlético in the Tercera División RFEF Group 13 on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Algar are 16th with 6 points from 9 games (in the bottom three), while Balsicas Atlético sit 9th on 13 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Algar's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to Santomera 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
Balsicas Atlético's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Los Garres 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Algar and 1.2 for Balsicas Atlético. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Algar 32%, draw 22%, Balsicas Atlético 45%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Algar to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Algar 0–1 Balsicas Atlético. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Algar32%fair 3.12 · @3.50
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Balsicas Atlético45%fair 2.20 · @2.00
2.17Expected goals
0.95Algar xG
1.22Balsicas Atlético xG
48%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Algar 1.0 – 1.2 Balsicas Atlético expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Balsicas Atlético to win✓
45%
2.20
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Balsicas Atlético / FT Balsicas Atlético✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.19
–
Form
Algar – last 3
LLL
20 Sep
@ Santomera
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Bullas Deportivo
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Atlético Pulpileño
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Balsicas Atlético – last 6
LLLLDL
20 Sep
vs Los Garres
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ UCAM Murcia II
0–4
L
6 Sep
vs SFC Minerva
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ Atlético Pulpileño
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Mazarrón FC
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ El Palmar
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algar and Balsicas Atlético.
What is the prediction for Algar vs Balsicas Atlético?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Algar vs Balsicas Atlético?
On our numbers Algar have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Balsicas Atlético 45%.
How many goals will there be in Algar vs Balsicas Atlético?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algar vs Balsicas Atlético?
Our predicted score is Algar 0–1 Balsicas Atlético, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Algar vs Balsicas Atlético?
Algar vs Balsicas Atlético (Tercera División RFEF Group 13) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
