Tercera División RFEF Group 13 · SpainBala Azul vs Alcantarilla prediction & analysis
Bala Azul or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Bala Azul to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bala Azul 1.1 – 0.4 Alcantarilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bala Azul are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 16% for Alcantarilla.
Bala Azul have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (2W 4D 0L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Alcantarilla have 5 points from their last 3 (1W 2D 0L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded.
We expect around 1.5 goals (1.1 for Bala Azul, 0.4 for Alcantarilla). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (26%), 0–0 (22%), 2–0 (15%).
Our pick is Bala Azul or draw at a 84% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.19. For a bigger price, Bala Azul to win at 1.85 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bala Azul to win ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Bala Azul or draw ✗ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 93% | 1.07 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bala Azul / FT Bala Azul ✗ | 32% | 3.10 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 26% | 3.92 | – |
Form
Bala Azul – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Águilas II | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Mazarrón FC | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Olímpico Totana | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Apr | vs Real Murcia II | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | vs SFC Minerva | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Mar | @ Atlético Pulpileño | 1–1 | D |
Alcantarilla – last 3
| 20 Sep | vs Cotillas CD | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Atlético Pulpileño | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Águilas II | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bala Azul and Alcantarilla.
Tercera División RFEF Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Santomera | 9 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 |  Santa Cruz | 9 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Águilas II | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 |  San Javier | 9 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 |  UCAM Murcia II | 9 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 |  Unión Molinense | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Los Garres | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bala Azul | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Balsicas Atlético | 9 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 |  Alcantarilla | 9 | +3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Olímpico Totana | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Atlético Pulpileño | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Cotillas CD | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Cartagena LU II | 9 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 |  SFC Minerva | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Algar | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 17 |  Bullas Deportivo | 9 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mazarrón FC | 9 | -6 | 4 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 13 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
Our pick is Bala Azul or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
On our numbers Bala Azul have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alcantarilla 16%.
How many goals will there be in Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
When is Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla (Tercera División RFEF Group 13) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.