Tercera División RFEF Group 11 · SpainIbiza Islas Pitiusas vs Formentera prediction & analysis
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1.5 – 0.7 Formentera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas hold the edge on home soil with a 60% chance of winning, against 19% for Formentera.
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Formentera have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.5 for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas, 0.7 for Formentera). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Ibiza Islas Pitiusas to win at 1.85 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas to win ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ibiza Islas Pitiusas / FT Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ✗ | 34% | 2.91 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 18% | 5.70 | – |
Form
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Andratx | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Sineu | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Migjorn | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Platges Calvià | 2–1 | W |
| 3 May | vs Poblense | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Apr | vs Andratx | 2–2 | D |
Formentera – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs PE Sant Jordi | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Llosetense | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Porreres | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Mercadal | 1–1 | D |
| 10 May | @ Llosetense | 2–2 | D |
| 3 May | vs Cardassar | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and Formentera.
Tercera División RFEF Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Platges Calvià | 10 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 |  Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 9 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Constància | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Manacor | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 |  Porreres | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  PE Sant Jordi | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Llosetense | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Cardassar | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 |  Formentera | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 |  Santanyí | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Binissalem | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alcúdia | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Andratx | 10 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 |  Mercadal | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sineu | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Migjorn | 10 | -13 | 5 |
| 17 |  Inter Ibiza | 9 | -15 | 5 |
| 18 |  Arenal | 9 | -14 | 4 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 11 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Formentera?
Our pick is Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Formentera?
On our numbers Ibiza Islas Pitiusas have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Formentera 19%.
How many goals will there be in Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Formentera?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Formentera?
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Formentera (Tercera División RFEF Group 11) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.