Tercera División RFEF Group 11 · SpainPorreres vs Santanyí prediction & analysis
Porreres or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Porreres to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Porreres 1.7 – 0.6 Santanyí expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Porreres are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 13% for Santanyí.
Porreres have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Santanyí have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.7 for Porreres, 0.6 for Santanyí). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Porreres or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Porreres to win at 1.83 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Porreres to win ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | Porreres or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Half-time result | Porreres ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Porreres / FT Porreres ✗ | 40% | 2.50 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.21 | – |
Form
Porreres – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Arenal | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Inter Ibiza | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Formentera | 1–3 | L |
| 9 Sep | @ Binéfar | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Andratx | 2–0 | W |
| 3 May | vs Alcoyano | 0–0 | D |
Santanyí – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Mercadal | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | @ Alcúdia | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Constància | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Cardassar | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Andratx | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Collerense | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Porreres and Santanyí.
Tercera División RFEF Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Platges Calvià | 10 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 |  Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 9 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Constància | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Manacor | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 |  Porreres | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  PE Sant Jordi | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Llosetense | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Cardassar | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 |  Formentera | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 |  Santanyí | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Binissalem | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alcúdia | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Andratx | 10 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 |  Mercadal | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sineu | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Migjorn | 10 | -13 | 5 |
| 17 |  Inter Ibiza | 9 | -15 | 5 |
| 18 |  Arenal | 9 | -14 | 4 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 11 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Porreres vs Santanyí?
Our pick is Porreres or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Porreres vs Santanyí?
On our numbers Porreres have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santanyí 13%.
How many goals will there be in Porreres vs Santanyí?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Porreres vs Santanyí?
Porreres vs Santanyí (Tercera División RFEF Group 11) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.