Unión Adarve host Móstoles in the Tercera División RFEF Group 7 on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Unión Adarve are 6th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Móstoles sit 1st on 23 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Unión Adarve's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Torrejón 0–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Móstoles's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Leganés II 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Móstoles arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for Unión Adarve and 1.3 for Móstoles. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Unión Adarve 31%, draw 22%, Móstoles 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Unión Adarve31%fair 3.21 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Móstoles46%fair 2.15 · @2.20
2.20Expected goals
0.95Unión Adarve xG
1.25Móstoles xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Unión Adarve 0.9 – 1.3 Móstoles expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Móstoles to win✗
46%
2.15
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Móstoles / FT Móstoles✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.21
–
Form
Unión Adarve – last 6
LDDDWL
4 Oct
@ Torrejón
0–4
L
27 Sep
vs Fuenlabrada
2–2
D
19 Sep
@ Alcobendas Sport
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Colonia Moscardó
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ SS Reyes II
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Marchamalo
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Móstoles – last 6
DWWWDD
4 Oct
vs Leganés II
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Torrejón
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Cala Pozuelo
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Fuenlabrada
3–1
W
6 Sep
vs Rayo Vallecano II
0–0
D
10 May
@ A Madrid III
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Unión Adarve and Móstoles.
What is the prediction for Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
On our numbers Unión Adarve have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Móstoles 46%.
How many goals will there be in Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
Our predicted score is Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
Unión Adarve vs Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF Group 7) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
