Value bet: Unión Adarve to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFuenlabrada to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.98
Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 7 sees Unión Adarve take on Fuenlabrada on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT). Unión Adarve are 6th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Fuenlabrada sit 11th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Unión Adarve's last 5: DDWLD Most recently they drew with Alcobendas Sport 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Fuenlabrada's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Torrejón 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Unión Adarve and 1.2 for Fuenlabrada. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Unión Adarve 38%, draw 24%, Fuenlabrada 39%.
Value angle: Unión Adarve to win at 2.88 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Unión Adarve 1–1 Fuenlabrada. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Unión Adarve38%fair 2.67 · @2.88
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Fuenlabrada39%fair 2.59 · @2.20
2.38Expected goals
1.18Unión Adarve xG
1.20Fuenlabrada xG
46%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Unión Adarve 1.2 – 1.2 Fuenlabrada expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fuenlabrada to win✗
39%
2.59
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fuenlabrada / FT Fuenlabrada✗
21%
4.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.98
–
Form
Unión Adarve – last 6
DDWLDW
19 Sep
@ Alcobendas Sport
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Colonia Moscardó
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ SS Reyes II
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Marchamalo
0–2
L
27 Aug
vs Getafe II
2–2
D
10 May
vs Racing Madrid
5–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fuenlabrada – last 6
WLDLDW
19 Sep
vs Torrejón
3–1
W
13 Sep
vs Móstoles
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Alcobendas Sport
0–0
D
3 May
@ Navalcarnero
1–3
L
26 Apr
vs Rayo Majadahonda
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Socuéllamos
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Unión Adarve and Fuenlabrada.
What is the prediction for Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada?
On our numbers Unión Adarve have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fuenlabrada 39%.
How many goals will there be in Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada?
Our predicted score is Unión Adarve 1–1 Fuenlabrada, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada?
Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada (Tercera División RFEF Group 7) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
