Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSelaya to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chanceSelaya or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.68
Selaya vs Naval Reinosa preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 3 sees Selaya take on Naval Reinosa on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT). Selaya are 16th with 7 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Naval Reinosa sit 18th on 6 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Selaya's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Escobedo 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Naval Reinosa's last 4: LLLD Most recently they lost to Laredo 0–4 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Selaya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Selaya and 0.7 for Naval Reinosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 43%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Selaya to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Selaya 1–0 Naval Reinosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Selaya63%fair 1.59 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.40
Naval Reinosa14%fair 7.33 · @3.90
2.47Expected goals
1.78Selaya xG
0.70Naval Reinosa xG
43%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Selaya 1.8 – 0.7 Naval Reinosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Selaya to win✓
63%
1.59
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Selaya or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Selaya ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Selaya / FT Selaya✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.68
–
Form
Selaya – last 6
LWLDWL
26 Sep
@ Escobedo
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Atlético Albericia
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Tropezón
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Castro
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Noja
3–0
W
29 Mar
@ Castro
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Naval Reinosa – last 4
LLLD
26 Sep
vs Laredo
0–4
L
19 Sep
@ Bezana
2–3
L
13 Sep
vs Torina
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Velarde
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Selaya and Naval Reinosa.
What is the prediction for Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
Our pick is Selaya to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
On our numbers Selaya have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Naval Reinosa 14%.
How many goals will there be in Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
Our predicted score is Selaya 1–0 Naval Reinosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
Selaya vs Naval Reinosa (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
