Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Tropezón to win @ 1.83 – our chance 65% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTropezón to win ✓65% · @1.83
Double chanceTropezón or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.18
Castro vs Tropezón preview and prediction
The match
Castro host Tropezón in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Castro are 12th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Tropezón sit 1st on 26 points (top of the table). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Castro's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Atlético Mineros 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Tropezón's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Revilla 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tropezón arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for Castro and 1.7 for Tropezón. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Castro 13%, draw 22%, Tropezón 65%.
Safer route: Tropezón or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Tropezón to win at 1.83 – 65% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tropezón or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Castro 0–1 Tropezón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Castro13%fair 7.63 · @3.90
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.25
Tropezón65%fair 1.55 · @1.83
2.38Expected goals
0.63Castro xG
1.75Tropezón xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
0–09%
1–29%
0–38%
From our goals model: Castro 0.6 – 1.7 Tropezón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tropezón to win✓
65%
1.55
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Tropezón or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Tropezón ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tropezón / FT Tropezón✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.18
–
Form
Castro – last 6
LDWDWD
27 Sep
vs Atlético Mineros
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Revilla
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Solares
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Selaya
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Selaya
3–1
W
15 Mar
vs Bezana
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tropezón – last 6
WWWWLW
27 Sep
vs Revilla
2–0
W
19 Sep
@ Solares
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Selaya
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Laredo
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Arnedo
0–1
L
13 Jun
vs Arnedo
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castro and Tropezón.
Our pick is Tropezón or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Castro vs Tropezón?
On our numbers Castro have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tropezón 65%.
How many goals will there be in Castro vs Tropezón?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castro vs Tropezón?
Our predicted score is Castro 0–1 Tropezón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Castro vs Tropezón?
Castro vs Tropezón (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
