Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
1
Value bet: Sámano to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSámano to win ✓45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Sámano vs Guarnizo preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 3 sees Sámano take on Guarnizo on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). Sámano are 6th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Guarnizo sit 13th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sámano's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Vimenor 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Guarnizo's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Cayón 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Guarnizo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Sámano and 1.2 for Guarnizo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sámano 45%, draw 23%, Guarnizo 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Sámano to win at 2.38 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sámano 1–1 Guarnizo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sámano45%fair 2.20 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Guarnizo32%fair 3.12 · @2.80
2.75Expected goals
1.52Sámano xG
1.23Guarnizo xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sámano 1.5 – 1.2 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sámano to win✓
45%
2.20
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sámano / FT Sámano✓
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.28
–
Form
Sámano – last 6
LDLLLL
13 Sep
@ Vimenor
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Barquereño
2–2
D
3 May
vs Bergantiños
0–5
L
26 Apr
@ Marino de Luanco
1–4
L
19 Apr
vs Numancia
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ UD Ourense
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Guarnizo – last 6
LLLDWD
12 Sep
vs Cayón
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Atlético Mineros
1–2
L
24 May
@ Tropezón
0–3
L
17 May
vs Tropezón
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Escobedo
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Vimenor
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sámano and Guarnizo.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Sámano vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Sámano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guarnizo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Sámano vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sámano vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Sámano 1–1 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sámano vs Guarnizo?
Sámano vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
