Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMosconia to win ✗67% · @1.65
Double chanceMosconia or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.66
Astur vs Mosconia preview and prediction
The match
Astur host Mosconia in the Tercera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 11:15 (WAT). Astur are 16th with 6 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Mosconia sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Astur's last 4: DLLL Most recently they drew with San Martín 2–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Mosconia's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Andes 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mosconia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Astur and 1.8 for Mosconia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Astur 14%, draw 19%, Mosconia 67%.
Safer route: Mosconia or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mosconia to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Astur 0–1 Mosconia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Astur14%fair 6.94 · @4.50
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @3.50
Mosconia67%fair 1.50 · @1.65
2.50Expected goals
0.67Astur xG
1.83Mosconia xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–08%
From our goals model: Astur 0.7 – 1.8 Mosconia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mosconia to win✗
67%
1.50
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Mosconia or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Mosconia ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mosconia / FT Mosconia✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.66
–
Form
Astur – last 4
DLLL
27 Sep
@ San Martín
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Siero
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Colunga
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Caudal
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Mosconia – last 6
WDWWLL
26 Sep
vs Andes
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Condal
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Gijón Industrial
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Llanes
5–1
W
15 Aug
vs Real Avilés
0–2
L
24 May
@ Covadonga
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Astur and Mosconia.
Our pick is Mosconia to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Astur vs Mosconia?
On our numbers Astur have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Mosconia 67%.
How many goals will there be in Astur vs Mosconia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Astur vs Mosconia?
Our predicted score is Astur 0–1 Mosconia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Astur vs Mosconia?
Astur vs Mosconia (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
