Value bet: Astur to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Martín to win ✗41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.30
San Martín vs Astur preview and prediction
The match
Astur travel to face San Martín in the Tercera División RFEF Group 2 on Sunday 27 September (11:00 WAT). San Martín are 8th with 15 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Astur sit 16th on 6 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
San Martín's last 5: DLLWD Most recently they drew with Andes 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Astur's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to Siero 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
San Martín arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for San Martín and 1.2 for Astur. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Martín 41%, draw 25%, Astur 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Astur to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: San Martín 1–1 Astur. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Martín41%fair 2.46 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Astur35%fair 2.87 · @3.10
2.50Expected goals
1.31San Martín xG
1.19Astur xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: San Martín 1.3 – 1.2 Astur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martín to win✗
41%
2.46
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Martín / FT San Martín✗
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.30
–
Form
San Martín – last 6
DLLWDL
20 Sep
@ Andes
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Condal
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Gijón Industrial
0–2
L
26 Apr
vs L'Entregu
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Colunga
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Mosconia
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Astur – last 3
LLL
20 Sep
vs Siero
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Colunga
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Caudal
0–3
L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Martín and Astur.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win San Martín vs Astur?
On our numbers San Martín have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Astur 35%.
How many goals will there be in San Martín vs Astur?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Martín vs Astur?
Our predicted score is San Martín 1–1 Astur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is San Martín vs Astur?
San Martín vs Astur (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
