Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Caudal to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaudal to win ✗42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.76
Covadonga vs Caudal preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 2 sees Covadonga take on Caudal on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT). Covadonga are 1st with 23 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Caudal sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Covadonga's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Langreo 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Caudal's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Ceares 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Caudal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 June 2026, finished Covadonga 2–4 Caudal. Across their last 3 meetings Covadonga have won 0, Caudal 3, with 0 draws and 4.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.7 for Covadonga and 1.8 for Caudal. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Covadonga 34%, draw 24%, Caudal 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Caudal to win at 2.62 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Covadonga 1–1 Caudal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Covadonga34%fair 2.95 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Caudal42%fair 2.40 · @2.62
3.50Expected goals
1.65Covadonga xG
1.85Caudal xG
65%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–35%
From our goals model: Covadonga 1.7 – 1.8 Caudal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Covadonga vs Caudal?
On our numbers Covadonga have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Caudal 42%.
How many goals will there be in Covadonga vs Caudal?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Covadonga vs Caudal?
Our predicted score is Covadonga 1–1 Caudal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Covadonga vs Caudal?
Covadonga vs Caudal (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
