Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.62 – our chance 72% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBurnley W to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceBurnley W or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓72% · @1.62
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–2 ✓6% · fair 18.05
Burnley W vs Durham W preview and prediction
The match
Durham W travel to Turf Moor in the WSL Cup on Sunday 18 October (14:00 WAT) to face Burnley W.
Form guide
Burnley W's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Nottingham Forest W 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Durham W's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Newcastle United W 0–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 3.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 6.0 goals: 3.7 for Burnley W and 2.3 for Durham W. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 94% and both teams to score at 72%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Burnley W 59%, draw 25%, Durham W 17%.
Safer route: Burnley W or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (72%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.62 – 72% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Burnley W or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Burnley W 3–2 Durham W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Burnley W59%fair 1.71 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.30
Durham W17%fair 5.93 · @3.60
6.00Expected goals
3.68Burnley W xG
2.32Durham W xG
72%Both score
94%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–26%
4–25%
3–15%
2–25%
4–14%
3–34%
From our goals model: Burnley W 3.7 – 2.3 Durham W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley W to win✓
59%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Burnley W or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
72%
1.38
1.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Burnley W ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley W / FT Burnley W✓
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–2✓
6%
18.05
–
Form
Burnley W – last 5
LDLLD
4 Oct
@ Nottingham Forest W
0–2
L
26 Sep
vs Bristol City W
0–0
D
18 Sep
@ Wolverhampton W
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs Sunderland W
1–2
L
4 Sep
@ Watford W
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Durham W – last 6
LLLLLL
4 Oct
vs Newcastle United W
0–3
L
30 Sep
vs Manchester United W
1–5
L
27 Sep
@ Sheffield United W
1–4
L
20 Sep
vs Nottingham Forest W
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Leicester City FC W
2–4
L
6 Sep
vs Southampton W
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley W and Durham W.
Our pick is Burnley W or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley W vs Durham W?
On our numbers Burnley W have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Durham W 17%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley W vs Durham W?
We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 72% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley W vs Durham W?
Our predicted score is Burnley W 3–2 Durham W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.
When is Burnley W vs Durham W?
Burnley W vs Durham W (WSL Cup) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sheffield United W0
Nottingham Forest W0
Newcastle United W0
Sunderland W1
Bristol City W1
Southampton W1