Value bet: Penarol to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Atletico Torque vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
Penarol travel to Estadio Centenario in the Primera División Apertura on Thursday 1 October (00:00 WAT) to face Atletico Torque. Atletico Torque are 2nd with 28 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atletico Torque's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Deportivo Maldonado 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Penarol's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Boston River 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 August 2026, finished Penarol 1–0 Atletico Torque.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.2 for Atletico Torque and 1.5 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 2.40 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Atletico Torque 1–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Torque33%fair 3.05 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Penarol45%fair 2.23 · @2.40
2.76Expected goals
1.25Atletico Torque xG
1.51Penarol xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Atletico Torque 1.2 – 1.5 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
On our numbers Atletico Torque have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penarol 45%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Atletico Torque 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
Atletico Torque vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
