Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBari to win ✗67% · @1.67
Double chanceBari or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.28
Bari vs Crotone preview and prediction
The match
Bari host Crotone in the Serie C Girone C on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio San Nicola. Bari are 2nd with 23 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Crotone sit 20th on 1 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bari's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Giugliano 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Crotone's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Audace Cerignola 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Bari arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Bari and 0.6 for Crotone. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bari 67%, draw 21%, Crotone 12%.
Safer route: Bari or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bari to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bari 1–0 Crotone. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bari67%fair 1.50 · @1.67
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.40
Crotone12%fair 8.30 · @4.40
2.44Expected goals
1.83Bari xG
0.61Crotone xG
47%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–09%
From our goals model: Bari 1.8 – 0.6 Crotone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bari to win✗
67%
1.50
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Bari or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Bari ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bari / FT Bari✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.28
–
Form
Bari – last 6
WLWWDW
10 Oct
vs Giugliano
2–0
W
4 Oct
@ Salernitana
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sorrento
2–1
W
15 Sep
vs Potenza
0–0
D
11 Sep
@ Team Altamura
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Crotone – last 6
LLWDLD
10 Oct
vs Audace Cerignola
2–3
L
3 Oct
@ Catania
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Salernitana
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ SS Monopoli
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Inter U23
0–2
L
12 Sep
@ Savoia
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bari and Crotone.
Our pick is Bari to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Bari vs Crotone?
On our numbers Bari have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Crotone 12%.
How many goals will there be in Bari vs Crotone?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bari vs Crotone?
Our predicted score is Bari 1–0 Crotone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bari vs Crotone?
Bari vs Crotone (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
