Value bet: Bari to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSalernitana to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.91
Salernitana vs Bari preview and prediction
The match
Salernitana host Bari in the Serie C Girone C on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stadio Arechi. Salernitana are 14th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Bari sit 2nd on 23 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Salernitana's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Crotone 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Bari's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Cosenza 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bari arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Salernitana and 1.2 for Bari. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Salernitana 39%, draw 23%, Bari 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Bari to win at 3.00 – 38% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Salernitana 1–1 Bari. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Salernitana39%fair 2.57 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.25
Bari38%fair 2.62 · @3.00
2.36Expected goals
1.19Salernitana xG
1.17Bari xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Salernitana 1.2 – 1.2 Bari expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Salernitana to win✓
39%
2.57
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Salernitana / FT Salernitana✗
21%
4.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.91
–
Form
Salernitana – last 6
LWDWDD
26 Sep
@ Crotone
1–2
L
19 Sep
vs Giugliano
1–0
W
15 Sep
@ Barletta
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Potenza
4–2
W
6 Sep
vs Cavese
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Foggia
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bari – last 6
WWDWWD
26 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sorrento
2–1
W
15 Sep
vs Potenza
0–0
D
11 Sep
@ Team Altamura
3–0
W
5 Sep
vs Casarano
1–0
W
1 Sep
vs AZ Picerno
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Salernitana and Bari.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Salernitana vs Bari?
On our numbers Salernitana have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bari 38%.
How many goals will there be in Salernitana vs Bari?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Salernitana vs Bari?
Our predicted score is Salernitana 1–1 Bari, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Salernitana vs Bari?
Salernitana vs Bari (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Arechi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
