Value bet: Sorrento to win @ 3.25 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSorrento to win ✗39% · @3.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.79
Foggia vs Sorrento preview and prediction
The match
Sorrento travel to Stadio Pino Zaccheria in the Serie C Girone C on Sunday 27 September (19:30 WAT) to face Foggia. Foggia are 16th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Sorrento sit 9th on 20 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Foggia's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Inter U23 2–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Sorrento's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Bari 1–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sorrento arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Foggia and 1.1 for Sorrento. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Foggia 35%, draw 26%, Sorrento 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Sorrento to win at 3.25 – 39% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Foggia 1–1 Sorrento. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Foggia35%fair 2.85 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.80
Sorrento39%fair 2.56 · @3.25
2.17Expected goals
1.05Foggia xG
1.12Sorrento xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Foggia 1.0 – 1.1 Sorrento expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sorrento to win✗
39%
2.56
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sorrento / FT Sorrento✗
21%
4.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.79
–
Form
Foggia – last 6
LDLLDW
20 Sep
@ Inter U23
2–3
L
15 Sep
vs Savoia
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ SS Monopoli
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Audace Cerignola
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Salernitana
1–1
D
24 Aug
@ Crotone
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sorrento – last 6
LWWWWW
19 Sep
vs Bari
1–2
L
15 Sep
@ Cavese
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs AZ Picerno
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Giugliano
2–0
W
2 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Crotone
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Foggia and Sorrento.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Foggia vs Sorrento?
On our numbers Foggia have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sorrento 39%.
How many goals will there be in Foggia vs Sorrento?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Foggia vs Sorrento?
Our predicted score is Foggia 1–1 Sorrento, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Foggia vs Sorrento?
Foggia vs Sorrento (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pino Zaccheria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
