Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Latina to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLatina to win ✗62% · @1.73
Double chanceLatina or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Latina vs Ostia Mare preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone B sees Latina take on Ostia Mare on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stadio Domenico Francioni. Latina are 15th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Ostia Mare sit 18th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Latina's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Reggiana 0–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Ostia Mare's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Forli 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 August 2026, finished Latina 1–1 Ostia Mare.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Latina and 0.7 for Ostia Mare. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Latina 62%, draw 21%, Ostia Mare 17%.
Safer route: Latina or draw (83%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Latina to win at 1.73 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Latina or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Latina 1–0 Ostia Mare. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Latina62%fair 1.62 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.30
Ostia Mare17%fair 5.86 · @4.00
2.31Expected goals
1.62Latina xG
0.69Ostia Mare xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Latina 1.6 – 0.7 Ostia Mare expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Latina or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Latina vs Ostia Mare?
On our numbers Latina have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ostia Mare 17%.
How many goals will there be in Latina vs Ostia Mare?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Latina vs Ostia Mare?
Our predicted score is Latina 1–0 Ostia Mare, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Latina vs Ostia Mare?
Latina vs Ostia Mare (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Domenico Francioni.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
