Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
1
Value bet: Gubbio to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGubbio to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.21
Gubbio vs Perugia preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone B sees Gubbio take on Perugia on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT) at Stadio Pietro Barbetti. Gubbio are 19th with 8 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Perugia sit 12th on 17 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Gubbio's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Ravenna 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Perugia's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Reggiana 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Gubbio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Gubbio and 1.3 for Perugia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gubbio 40%, draw 25%, Perugia 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Gubbio to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.68, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gubbio 1–1 Perugia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gubbio40%fair 2.50 · @2.70
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Perugia35%fair 2.88 · @2.40
2.79Expected goals
1.45Gubbio xG
1.34Perugia xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Gubbio 1.5 – 1.3 Perugia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gubbio to win✗
40%
2.50
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gubbio / FT Gubbio✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.21
–
Form
Gubbio – last 6
LLDWWW
27 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Ostia Mare
0–2
L
16 Sep
@ Pescara
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Latina
3–1
W
5 Sep
@ Campobasso FC
4–2
W
2 Sep
vs Vis Pesaro
5–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Perugia – last 6
WLLLWD
27 Sep
vs Reggiana
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Grosseto
0–2
L
16 Sep
vs Spezia
0–3
L
13 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Pineto
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Vis Pesaro
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gubbio and Perugia.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Gubbio vs Perugia?
On our numbers Gubbio have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Perugia 35%.
How many goals will there be in Gubbio vs Perugia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gubbio vs Perugia?
Our predicted score is Gubbio 1–1 Perugia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Gubbio vs Perugia?
Gubbio vs Perugia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pietro Barbetti.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
