Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: Alcione to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlcione to win ✗63% · @1.95
Double chanceAlcione or draw ✗85% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Alcione vs Athletic Carpi preview and prediction
The match
Alcione host Athletic Carpi in the Serie C Girone A on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadio Ernesto Breda. Alcione are 8th with 18 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Athletic Carpi sit 15th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Alcione's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Desenzano Calvina 4–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Athletic Carpi's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Lumezzane 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Alcione and 1.1 for Athletic Carpi. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 64% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Alcione to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alcione or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alcione 2–1 Athletic Carpi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alcione63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.10
Athletic Carpi15%fair 6.63 · @3.30
3.30Expected goals
2.25Alcione xG
1.05Athletic Carpi xG
61%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alcione 2.2 – 1.1 Athletic Carpi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcione to win✗
63%
1.59
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Alcione or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Alcione ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcione / FT Alcione✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Form
Alcione – last 6
WDDDLD
18 Oct
vs Desenzano Calvina
4–1
W
11 Oct
@ Lecco
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Trento
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Albinoleffe
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Union Brescia
0–4
L
17 Sep
@ PRO Vercelli
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Athletic Carpi – last 6
WLLLDD
17 Oct
vs Lumezzane
3–1
W
10 Oct
@ Pergolettese
1–2
L
3 Oct
@ PRO Vercelli
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Arzignano Valchiampo
0–3
L
20 Sep
@ Novara
2–2
D
17 Sep
vs Ospitaletto
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcione and Athletic Carpi.
What is the prediction for Alcione vs Athletic Carpi?
Our pick is Alcione or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Alcione vs Athletic Carpi?
On our numbers Alcione have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Athletic Carpi 15%.
How many goals will there be in Alcione vs Athletic Carpi?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcione vs Athletic Carpi?
Our predicted score is Alcione 2–1 Athletic Carpi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Alcione vs Athletic Carpi?
Alcione vs Athletic Carpi (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ernesto Breda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
