Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Bolívar to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBolívar to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceBolívar or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.30
Bolívar vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
Sao Paulo travel to Estadio Hernando Siles in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wednesday 12 August (01:30 WAT) to face Bolívar.
Form guide
Bolívar's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Aurora 4–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Sao Paulo's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Gremio 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Bolívar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Bolívar and 0.6 for Sao Paulo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bolívar 62%, draw 24%, Sao Paulo 14%.
Safer route: Bolívar or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Bolívar to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bolívar or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bolívar 1–0 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bolívar62%fair 1.62 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.50
Sao Paulo14%fair 7.28 · @4.35
2.10Expected goals
1.54Bolívar xG
0.56Sao Paulo xG
45%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Bolívar 1.5 – 0.6 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bolívar to win✗
62%
1.62
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Bolívar or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.50
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bolívar / FT Bolívar✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.30
–
Form
Bolívar – last 6
WWLWWW
9 Aug
@ Aurora
4–2
W
6 Aug
vs Oriente Petrolero
2–1
W
2 Aug
@ Always Ready
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ Gremio
1–0
W
26 Jul
vs Real Potosí
2–1
W
23 Jul
vs Gremio
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
LDLLWD
8 Aug
@ Gremio
1–2
L
26 Jul
@ Flamengo
1–1
D
23 Jul
vs Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
1 Jun
@ Remo
0–1
L
26 May
vs Boston River
2–0
W
20 May
vs Millonarios
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bolívar and Sao Paulo.
Our pick is Bolívar or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Bolívar have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sao Paulo 14%.
How many goals will there be in Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Bolívar 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Bolívar vs Sao Paulo?
Bolívar vs Sao Paulo (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 12 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Hernando Siles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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