Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.70 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRB Bragantino to win ✗49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.77
RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees RB Bragantino take on Atletico-MG on Wednesday 12 August, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques. RB Bragantino are 2nd with 10 points from 6 games, while Atletico-MG sit 1st on 10 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
RB Bragantino's last 5: LWDDD Most recently they lost to Corinthians 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico-MG's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Remo 2–2 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.4 for RB Bragantino and 1.0 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 3.70 – 29% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: RB Bragantino 1–0 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
RB Bragantino49%fair 2.05 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.30
Atletico-MG29%fair 3.40 · @3.70
2.38Expected goals
1.39RB Bragantino xG
0.99Atletico-MG xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–09%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: RB Bragantino 1.4 – 1.0 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
RB Bragantino to win✗
49%
2.05
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT RB Bragantino / FT RB Bragantino✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.77
–
Form
RB Bragantino – last 6
LWDDDW
9 Aug
vs Corinthians
0–2
L
30 Jul
vs Sporting Cristal
1–0
W
26 Jul
vs Coritiba
0–0
D
23 Jul
@ Sporting Cristal
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Fluminense
1–1
D
11 Jul
vs Atletico Paranaense
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
DWDWDW
8 Aug
@ Remo
2–2
D
4 Aug
@ Juventude
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs Juventude
0–0
D
26 Jul
@ Palmeiras
2–1
W
21 Jul
vs Bahia
1–1
D
31 May
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between RB Bragantino and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers RB Bragantino have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico-MG 29%.
How many goals will there be in RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is RB Bragantino 1–0 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG?
RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 12 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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