Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 55% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAjax to win ✓79% · @1.07
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓96% · fair 1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✓8% · fair 12.42
Ajax vs Shelbourne preview and prediction
The match
Shelbourne travel to Johan Cruijff Arena in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 6 August (19:00 WAT) to face Ajax.
Form guide
Ajax's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat FC Volendam 3–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Shelbourne's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Waterford 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Ajax arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.4 goals: 3.4 for Ajax and 1.0 for Shelbourne. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 77% and both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ajax 79%, draw 16%, Shelbourne 4%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.35.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.35 – 55% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Ajax 3–1 Shelbourne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ajax79%fair 1.26 · @1.07
Draw16%fair 6.11 · @8.80
Shelbourne4%fair 22.24 · @25.00
4.40Expected goals
3.39Ajax xG
1.01Shelbourne xG
55%Both score
77%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–18%
3–08%
2–17%
2–07%
4–17%
4–07%
From our goals model: Ajax 3.4 – 1.0 Shelbourne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
79%
1.26
1.07
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
96%
1.05
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
2.35 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.73
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✓
60%
1.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✓
8%
12.42
–
Form
Ajax – last 6
WWWWWD
2 Aug
@ FC Volendam
3–1
W
30 Jul
vs Vojvodina
4–1
W
26 Jul
vs Burnley
2–1
W
23 Jul
@ Vojvodina
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
1–0
W
15 Jul
vs VfL Bochum
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Shelbourne – last 6
LLWDDW
2 Aug
@ Waterford
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ Kalju Nomme
1–2
L
23 Jul
vs Kalju Nomme
5–2
W
17 Jul
@ Kerry
2–2
D
7 Jul
vs Celtic
1–1
D
3 Jul
vs Dundalk
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Shelbourne.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Ajax vs Shelbourne?
On our numbers Ajax have a 79% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Shelbourne 4%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Shelbourne?
We expect about 4.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Shelbourne?
Our predicted score is Ajax 3–1 Shelbourne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.4 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Shelbourne?
Ajax vs Shelbourne (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 6 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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