ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 1 sees ES Metlaoui take on Stade Tunisien on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Metlaoui Municipal stadium. ES Metlaoui are 12th with 6 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while Stade Tunisien sit 3rd on 13 points (in the top four).
Form guide
ES Metlaoui's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Stade Tunisien's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat ES Hammam-Sousse 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Stade Tunisien arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for ES Metlaoui and 1.2 for Stade Tunisien. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: ES Metlaoui 30%, draw 25%, Stade Tunisien 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.25.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 2.25, above our fair price of 1.98, so there is value in it. Predicted score: ES Metlaoui 1–1 Stade Tunisien. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ES Metlaoui30%fair 3.39 · @3.30
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.62
Stade Tunisien45%fair 2.22 · @2.30
2.14Expected goals
0.92ES Metlaoui xG
1.22Stade Tunisien xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: ES Metlaoui 0.9 – 1.2 Stade Tunisien expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stade Tunisien to win✓
45%
2.22
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stade Tunisien / FT Stade Tunisien✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.94
–
Form
ES Metlaoui – last 6
LWLLLD
13 Sep
@ Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs ES Hammam-Sousse
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ ES Sahel
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Club Africain
0–1
L
17 May
vs ES Tunis
1–3
L
14 May
vs JS Kairouanaise
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Stade Tunisien – last 6
WLDWDL
12 Sep
@ ES Hammam-Sousse
3–1
W
29 Aug
@ US Monastirienne
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs CS Sfaxien
1–1
D
13 May
@ AS Gabes
1–0
W
8 May
vs US Ben Guerdane
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien.
What is the prediction for ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.25.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien?
On our numbers ES Metlaoui have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Stade Tunisien 45%.
How many goals will there be in ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien?
Our predicted score is ES Metlaoui 1–1 Stade Tunisien, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien?
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Metlaoui Municipal stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
