Value bet: ES Hammam-Sousse to win @ 3.90 – our chance 34% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +34%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultES Metlaoui to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.93
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse preview and prediction
The match
ES Hammam-Sousse travel to Metlaoui Municipal stadium in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 6 September (16:30 WAT) to face ES Metlaoui. ES Metlaoui are 12th with 6 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while ES Hammam-Sousse sit 16th on 1 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
ES Metlaoui's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to ES Sahel 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
ES Hammam-Sousse's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Club Africain 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
ES Metlaoui arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.8 for ES Metlaoui and 0.8 for ES Hammam-Sousse. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: ES Metlaoui 39%, draw 27%, ES Hammam-Sousse 34%.
Value angle: ES Hammam-Sousse to win at 3.90 – 34% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: ES Metlaoui 0–0 ES Hammam-Sousse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ES Metlaoui39%fair 2.59 · @2.05
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @2.75
ES Hammam-Sousse34%fair 2.90 · @3.90
1.60Expected goals
0.84ES Metlaoui xG
0.77ES Hammam-Sousse xG
38%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–020%
1–017%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: ES Metlaoui 0.8 – 0.8 ES Hammam-Sousse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ES Metlaoui to win✓
39%
2.59
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
5.93
–
Form
ES Metlaoui – last 6
LLLDWW
30 Aug
@ ES Sahel
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Club Africain
0–1
L
17 May
vs ES Tunis
1–3
L
14 May
vs JS Kairouanaise
0–0
D
4 May
@ US Monastirienne
1–0
W
29 Apr
vs ES Sahel
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
ES Hammam-Sousse – last 6
LDLDDL
29 Aug
@ Club Africain
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs US Monastirienne
0–0
D
29 May
vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2–3
L
11 May
@ CS Hammam-Lif
1–1
D
1 May
vs Sfax Railways
2–2
D
27 Apr
@ Kerkennah
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ES Metlaoui and ES Hammam-Sousse.
What is the prediction for ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
On our numbers ES Metlaoui have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 27% and ES Hammam-Sousse 34%.
How many goals will there be in ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
Our predicted score is ES Metlaoui 0–0 ES Hammam-Sousse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Metlaoui Municipal stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
