Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 1.69 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✗65% · @1.69
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.24
Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Vasco DA Gama take on Olimpia on Thursday 13 August, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio São Januário. Vasco DA Gama are 2nd with 10 points from 6 games, while Olimpia sit 1st on 13 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Bahia 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Olimpia's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to 2 de Mayo 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 May 2026, finished Olimpia 3–1 Vasco DA Gama. Across their last 2 meetings Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Olimpia 1, with 0 draws and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Vasco DA Gama and 0.7 for Olimpia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 65%, draw 23%, Olimpia 12%.
Safer route: Vasco DA Gama or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 1.69 – 65% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 2–0 Olimpia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama65%fair 1.54 · @1.69
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.80
Olimpia12%fair 8.39 · @4.70
2.63Expected goals
1.92Vasco DA Gama xG
0.71Olimpia xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.9 – 0.7 Olimpia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Olimpia 12%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 2–0 Olimpia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?
Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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