J2 League · Japan · NACK5 Stadium OmiyaOmiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.52
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Omiya Ardija 1.9 – 0.9 Montedio Yamagata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Omiya Ardija hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 20% for Montedio Yamagata.
Omiya Ardija have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Montedio Yamagata have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.9 for Omiya Ardija, 0.9 for Montedio Yamagata). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.52 is close to our fair price of 1.54.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Omiya Ardija to win | 59% | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Double chance | Omiya Ardija or draw | 80% | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 58% | 1.73 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.26 | 1.11 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | 1.48 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 | 1.52 |
| Half-time result | Omiya Ardija ahead at half-time | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Omiya Ardija / FT Omiya Ardija | 37% | 2.72 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 11% | 8.88 | – |
Form
Omiya Ardija – last 6
| 8 Nov | @ Tochigi City | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Nov | vs Iwaki | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Oct | @ Vegalta Sendai | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Oct | vs Yokohama FC | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Oct | vs Kataller Toyama | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Sagan Tosu | 1–2 | L |
Montedio Yamagata – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Iwaki | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Nov | vs Tokushima Vortis | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Oct | @ Vanraure Hachinohe | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Oct | vs Consadole Sapporo | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Fujieda MYFC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Omiya Ardija and Montedio Yamagata.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albirex Niigata | 16 | -1 | 32 |
| 2 |  Yokohama FC | 16 | +15 | 31 |
| 3 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 4 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 5 |  Omiya Ardija | 16 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 9 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 |  Shonan Bellmare | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 16 | +5 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Montedio Yamagata | 16 | -2 | 19 |
| 15 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 16 |  Fujieda MYFC | 16 | -4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 18 |  Tochigi City | 16 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 16 | -22 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
On our numbers Omiya Ardija have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Montedio Yamagata 20%.
How many goals will there be in Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at NACK5 Stadium Omiya.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.