J2 League · Japan · Denka Big Swan StadiumAlbirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.26
Value bet: Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Albirex Niigata 1.0 – 1.7 Tegevajaro Miyazaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tegevajaro Miyazaki shade it despite being away from home – 56% to win, against 24% for Albirex Niigata.
Albirex Niigata have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Tegevajaro Miyazaki have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. Tegevajaro Miyazaki come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.0 for Albirex Niigata, 1.7 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 0–2 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.26 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win at 1.95 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win | 56% | 1.77 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 80% | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 57% | 1.77 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | 1.26 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.98 | 1.77 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Tegevajaro Miyazaki / FT Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 33% | 2.99 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 11% | 8.73 | – |
Form
Albirex Niigata – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Imabari | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Nov | @ Ventforet Kofu | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Oct | vs Kataller Toyama | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Vegalta Sendai | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Sagan Tosu | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Oita Trinita | 1–5 | L |
Tegevajaro Miyazaki – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Tokushima Vortis | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Nov | vs Tochigi City | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Oct | vs Oita Trinita | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Montedio Yamagata | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Blaublitz Akita | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Jubilo Iwata | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Albirex Niigata and Tegevajaro Miyazaki.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albirex Niigata | 16 | -1 | 32 |
| 2 |  Yokohama FC | 16 | +15 | 31 |
| 3 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 4 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 5 |  Omiya Ardija | 16 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 9 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 |  Shonan Bellmare | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 16 | +5 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Montedio Yamagata | 16 | -2 | 19 |
| 15 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 16 |  Fujieda MYFC | 16 | -4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 18 |  Tochigi City | 16 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 16 | -22 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
On our numbers Albirex Niigata have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Tegevajaro Miyazaki 56%.
How many goals will there be in Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
Albirex Niigata vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Denka Big Swan Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.