Value bet: Albirex Niigata to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSagan Tosu to win ✗40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu preview and prediction
The match
Albirex Niigata host Sagan Tosu in the J2 League on Wednesday 21 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Denka Big Swan Stadium. Albirex Niigata are 1st with 32 points from 16 games (top of the table), while Sagan Tosu sit 13th on 20 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Albirex Niigata's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Oita Trinita 1–5 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Sagan Tosu's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Omiya Ardija 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Albirex Niigata and 1.4 for Sagan Tosu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Albirex Niigata to win at 3.20 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Albirex Niigata 1–1 Sagan Tosu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Albirex Niigata36%fair 2.81 · @3.20
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Sagan Tosu40%fair 2.50 · @2.10
2.64Expected goals
1.27Albirex Niigata xG
1.37Sagan Tosu xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Albirex Niigata 1.3 – 1.4 Sagan Tosu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sagan Tosu to win✗
40%
2.50
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sagan Tosu / FT Sagan Tosu✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Form
Albirex Niigata – last 6
LDWLDW
17 Oct
@ Oita Trinita
1–5
L
11 Oct
@ Shonan Bellmare
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs Tokushima Vortis
2–1
W
29 Sep
@ Matsumoto Yamaga
0–1
L
26 Sep
@ Blaublitz Akita
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Jubilo Iwata
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sagan Tosu – last 6
WWWLDL
17 Oct
vs Omiya Ardija
2–1
W
14 Oct
vs Avispa Fukuoka
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Fujieda MYFC
1–0
W
4 Oct
@ Blaublitz Akita
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Tokyo Verdy
1–1
D
26 Sep
@ Montedio Yamagata
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Albirex Niigata and Sagan Tosu.
What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
On our numbers Albirex Niigata have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sagan Tosu 40%.
How many goals will there be in Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our predicted score is Albirex Niigata 1–1 Sagan Tosu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Denka Big Swan Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
