Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu preview and prediction
The match
The J2 League sees Montedio Yamagata take on Sagan Tosu on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 09:00 (WAT) at Yamagata Park Stadium. Montedio Yamagata are 14th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Sagan Tosu sit 13th on 20 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Montedio Yamagata's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Kataller Toyama 0–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sagan Tosu's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Vissel Kobe 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Montedio Yamagata and 1.2 for Sagan Tosu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Montedio Yamagata 1–1 Sagan Tosu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Montedio Yamagata37%fair 2.72 · @2.75
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Sagan Tosu39%fair 2.55 · @2.50
2.42Expected goals
1.18Montedio Yamagata xG
1.23Sagan Tosu xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Montedio Yamagata 1.2 – 1.2 Sagan Tosu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sagan Tosu to win✗
39%
2.55
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sagan Tosu / FT Sagan Tosu✗
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.07
–
Form
Montedio Yamagata – last 6
LLWLWD
19 Sep
vs Kataller Toyama
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Albirex Niigata
0–1
L
9 Sep
@ Tochigi SC
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Ventforet Kofu
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Imabari
3–0
W
26 Aug
vs Fujieda MYFC
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sagan Tosu – last 6
LLLWWD
23 Sep
@ Vissel Kobe
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Iwaki
1–3
L
12 Sep
@ Imabari
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Nara Club
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Yokohama FC
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montedio Yamagata and Sagan Tosu.
What is the prediction for Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
On our numbers Montedio Yamagata have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sagan Tosu 39%.
How many goals will there be in Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our predicted score is Montedio Yamagata 1–1 Sagan Tosu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Yamagata Park Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
