Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Lagoa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLagoa to win ✗55% · @1.95
Double chanceLagoa or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.09
Lagoa vs FC Serpa preview and prediction
The match
FC Serpa travel to face Lagoa in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D on Sunday 13 September (15:00 WAT).
Form guide
Lagoa's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Santa Clara B 2–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
FC Serpa's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with 1º Dezembro 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Lagoa and 0.9 for FC Serpa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lagoa 55%, draw 26%, FC Serpa 19%.
Safer route: Lagoa or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Lagoa to win at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lagoa or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lagoa 1–0 FC Serpa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lagoa55%fair 1.81 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.25
FC Serpa19%fair 5.35 · @3.40
2.63Expected goals
1.72Lagoa xG
0.91FC Serpa xG
46%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Lagoa 1.7 – 0.9 FC Serpa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lagoa to win✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Lagoa or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lagoa / FT Lagoa✗
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.09
–
Form
Lagoa – last 6
WLDDLW
6 Sep
@ Santa Clara B
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Imortal Albufeira
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Aljustrelense
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Atlético Malveira
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ FC Alverca II
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FC Serpa – last 6
DWWLLW
6 Sep
vs 1º Dezembro
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs O Grandolense
2–0
W
16 Aug
vs Vitoria Setubal
4–2
W
22 Mar
vs Juventude Évora
0–3
L
15 Mar
@ Louletano
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Sintrense
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lagoa and FC Serpa.
Our pick is Lagoa or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lagoa vs FC Serpa?
On our numbers Lagoa have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC Serpa 19%.
How many goals will there be in Lagoa vs FC Serpa?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lagoa vs FC Serpa?
Our predicted score is Lagoa 1–0 FC Serpa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lagoa vs FC Serpa?
Lagoa vs FC Serpa (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Real5
Lajense5
1º Dezembro1
Amora1