Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B · Portugal

Guarda

WLLLD
0–2
FT

Castro Daire

DDDWL

Guarda vs Castro Daire prediction & analysis

63%
Footrivo pick

Under 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2

Value bet: Castro Daire to win @ 2.82 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultCastro Daire to win ✓41% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.09

Win chances

Guarda35%fair 2.88 · @2.31
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @2.99
Castro Daire41%fair 2.45 · @2.82
2.03Expected goals
0.96Guarda xG
1.07Castro Daire xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%

From our goals model: Guarda 1.0 – 1.1 Castro Daire expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Guarda and Castro Daire on our numbers – 35% for the home side, 41% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Guarda have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Castro Daire have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

We expect around 2.0 goals (1.0 for Guarda, 1.1 for Castro Daire). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (13%).

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.60. For a bigger price, Castro Daire to win at 2.82 is our value angle (41% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCastro Daire to win ✓41%2.452.82 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76%1.321.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.891.88
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓63%1.581.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓63%1.601.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.231.16
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗50%2.02–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗21%4.67–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14%7.09–

Form

Guarda – last 6

WLLLDL
1 Nov@ Cinfães1–0W
25 Octvs Machico0–1L
10 Oct@ Sanjoanense0–1L
20 Sepvs Chaves2–3L
13 Sepvs Camacha2–2D
6 Sep@ União Lamas0–1L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Castro Daire – last 6

DDDWLD
1 Novvs Florgrade1–1D
25 Oct@ Alpendorada2–2D
11 Octvs Salgueiros0–0D
4 Octvs Estrela Calheta3–0W
19 Sepvs Portimonense0–1L
13 Sep@ Beira-Mar1–1D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Guarda and Castro Daire.

More Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B predictions

FT Sanjoanense1 Machico1 392436 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.35 ✓ FT Beira-Mar1 União Lamas1 632512 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.24 ✓ – Camacha Cinfães 622414 1Camacha to win 62%@1.67 FT Florgrade1 Ovarense3 282349 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✗ FT Salgueiros1 Estrela Calheta0 652212 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Guarda vs Castro Daire?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win Guarda vs Castro Daire?

On our numbers Guarda have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Castro Daire 41%.

How many goals will there be in Guarda vs Castro Daire?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

When is Guarda vs Castro Daire?

Guarda vs Castro Daire (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.