Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Alpendorada to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlpendorada to win ✗50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.57
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.75
Alpendorada vs Camacha preview and prediction
The match
The Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B sees Alpendorada take on Camacha on Sunday 23 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Municipal Stadium Alpendorada. Alpendorada are 12th with 5 points from 7 games (in the bottom three), while Camacha sit 3rd on 15 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Alpendorada's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Guarda 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Camacha's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Salgueiros 1–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Alpendorada arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.2 for Alpendorada and 0.7 for Camacha. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Alpendorada to win at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alpendorada 1–0 Camacha. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alpendorada50%fair 2.00 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
Camacha28%fair 3.60 · @3.10
1.89Expected goals
1.16Alpendorada xG
0.74Camacha xG
40%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–015%
1–113%
0–111%
2–010%
2–17%
From our goals model: Alpendorada 1.2 – 0.7 Camacha expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alpendorada to win✗
50%
2.00
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alpendorada / FT Alpendorada✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.75
–
Form
Alpendorada – last 6
WWWLWD
16 Aug
@ Guarda
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Anadia
3–0
W
15 Mar
vs Gouveia
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ União Lamas
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Vila Meã
3–2
W
22 Feb
vs Cinfães
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Camacha – last 6
DLLWLW
16 Aug
vs Salgueiros
1–1
D
22 Jul
@ Maritimo
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Bragança
1–3
L
22 Mar
vs Machico
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Brito
2–4
L
8 Mar
vs AR São Martinho
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alpendorada and Camacha.
What is the prediction for Alpendorada vs Camacha?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Camacha?
On our numbers Alpendorada have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Camacha 28%.
How many goals will there be in Alpendorada vs Camacha?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alpendorada vs Camacha?
Our predicted score is Alpendorada 1–0 Camacha, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Alpendorada vs Camacha?
Alpendorada vs Camacha (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal Stadium Alpendorada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
